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Copper Scrap Price Predictions for July 13th, 2021

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by - 7/12/2021 1045 Views

By Analyzing the Correlation of Copper Primary and Copper Scrap, Predicting the Prices of Brass Scrap, Copper No.1 US, Copper No.2 US, Hard Brass, Copper No.1 Canada, Copper No.2 Canada, Copper No.3 Canada, Copper Radiators, and Sheet Copper.

Author: Jenisha. R
Research: Rakesh, C.G.Nadar
Commodity: Copper Base Metal, Brass Scrap, Copper No.1 US, Copper No.2 US, Hard Brass, Copper No.1 Canada, Copper No.2 Canada, Copper No.3 Canada, Copper Radiators and Sheet Copper
Data: COMEX Copper EOD, 2011 -2021, RIM Copper Scrap Prices 2011-2021, RIM Brass Scrap Prices 2011-2021, RIM Copper No.1 US, RIM Copper No.2 US 2011-2012, RIM Hard Brass 2011-2021, RIM Copper No.1 Canada 2011-2021, RIM Copper No.2 Canada 2011-2021, RIM Copper No.3 Canada 2011-2021, RIM Copper Radiators 2011-2021 and RIM Sheet Copper 2011-2021.
Technology: Scikitlearn and Numpy

Research Methods:

  • Linear Regression
  • Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
  • Granger's Casualty

Introduction

We have analyzed the interdependence between the Copper base metal and Copper Scrap over the past ten years (2010-20) based on COMEX EOD (End of Day) of primary Copper pricesBy using Linear Regression technique we are predicting the prices of Brass Scrap, Copper No.1 US, Copper No.2 US, Hard Brass, Copper No.1 Canada, Copper No.2 Canada, Copper No.3 Canada, Copper Radiators, and Sheet Copper for July 13th, 2021. This will provide valuable insights to Scrap Copper producers, traders, exporters, importers, and copper recycling companies. 

Predicted Value of Copper Scrap Price from Base Metal Copper Price

  

Brass Scrap predicted price

                            1.95

Copper No1 US predicted price

                            3.77

Copper No2 US predicted price

                            3.41

Hard Brass predicted price

                            3.13

Copper No1 Canada predicted price

                            4.65

Copper No2 Canada predicted price

                            4.42

Copper No3 Canada predicted price

                            4.36

Radiators predicted price

                           2.59

Sheet Copper predicted price

                            3.04

 

Graphical Representation for Copper Base Metal Price

Granger’s Causality - Definition

The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. If probability value is less than any alpha level, then the hypothesis would be rejected at that level. We used the Grangers causality test to determine the correlation between the base Metal Copper price with Copper Scrap price for the given time series.

When time series X Granger-causes time series Y, the patterns in X are approximately repeated in Y after some time lag (two examples are indicated with arrows). Thus, past values of X can be used for the prediction of future values of Y. 

Result of Granger's Causality Test

 

 

                            COMEX Price_x

COMEX Price_y

1.0000

Brass Scrap Price_y

0.0000

Copper No1 US Scrap price_y

0.0000

Copper No2 US Scrap Price_y

0.0000

Hard Brass Scrap Price_y

0.0001

Copper No1 Canada Scrap Price_y

0.0098

Copper No2 Canada Scrap Price_y

0.0001

Copper No3 Canada Scrap Price_y

0.0003

Radiators Scrap Price_y

0.0016

Sheet Copper Scrap Price_y

0.0000


For instance, the P-Value of COMEX price at column 1 represents the p-value of the Grangers Causality test for all scrap prices causing COMEX price, which is less than the significance level of 0.05. So, you can reject the null hypothesis and conclude Granger's Causality test for all scrap prices causing COMEX price_y.

Conclusion:

By using the Linear Regression and Granger's Causality techniques, we have predicted the prices of Brass Scrap, Copper No.1 US, Copper No.2 US, Hard Brass, Copper No.1 Canada, Copper No.2 Canada, Copper No.3 Canada, Copper Radiators and Sheet Copper for 13th July. RIM research team, with the help of our AI wing, continues research on Copper Scrap prices, and we will update it here as and when we get sustainable results. Subscribe for Current Copper Scrap Prices and Base Metal Prices.

Category : General

Tags : Copper, Copper Scrap Price, Copper Base Metal Price


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About Jenisha Rajakumar

I'M a Research Analyst and Content Creator at RIM. Currently I'm researching on Copper Prices around the Globe and the impacts on Copper Scrap Prices with regard to COMEX, LME, SHFE and MCX. .... more info

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